could PC gaming days be numbered?

[Killa-Kyle]

I hadn't checked this out statistically in a long time...

there are some worrying facts:


xbox live network is surpassed the 10 million accounts mark, not predicted until summer 08 (source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_Live)).
Xbox 360 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360) sales and PS3 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3) sales total over 27 million units (18mil/11mil)
Xbox 360 most popular game - Halo3 - over 8 million copies sold
PS3 most popular game - MotorStorm - over 3 million copies sold GTA4 - still no sign of a PC version
from a developer and publishers perspective they have static targets to work with. They have a largely known set of variables to deal with and worry about and don't have the traditional PC randomness and scalability of hardware issues.
it would be easy to look at the figures of units sold and ignore the more troublesome PC platform


Some PC facts:


Feb 08 steam reached 15 million accounts (source (http://www.steampowered.com/v/index.php?area=news&archive=yes&id=1431))
steam current daily peak of about 1.26 million concurrent users (source (http://steampowered.com/v/index.php?area=stats&cc=IE))
Half-Life 2 sold over 4 million copies (source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_2))
Bioshock sold over 1 million copies on PC
Sims 16 million units (29 including expansions) (personally, never have, never will)
Half-Life over 8 million
Myst over 6 million
Doom 3, over 3.5 million
BF1942 over 2.4 million
BF2 over 2.1 million


Discuss! any more points of view or factiods?

I haven't looked that hard for other PC statistics outside the steam network... so feel free to provide some reliable sources if you have any?

I've purposefully not included MMO type facts here as I don't really see them as PC gaming, not in the traditional sense. Maybe they should be included? I'm not made up on that subject. So I started another thread for discussion on that topic.

[Platinum]

Doesnt help that some of todays games wont run on lower spec machines, Crysis / COD4 ect, developers need to put more effort into getting PC games to run on lower end platforms as thats what the majority of PC users have these days.
I think the new generation of integrated graphics should help things, the new AMD 780G chipset with a integrated HD 2400 should help as the performance there is pretty damn good, added to that hybrid brossfire which lets you put in another low end card which you can pick up for £30 to boost performance should give the poor folks better access to PC gaming.
I think the main issue at the moment is price, you can pick up a PS3 / 360 for under £300, I dont think you can buy a ready made PC / build one for that money that will give you the same performance.
For the games developers its easyer to code games for consoles as theres more money in it :/
Also I wonder how much Piracy comes into the lack of PC games sales...?

[Betty_Swallocks]

The only thing that would stop me from going over to console gaming is the fact that I just can't get on with the controllers for the types of game I like to play.

FPS and 3rd person view games just play so much better with mouse and keyboard imo and I just can't control them with a game controller. That's why I always wait for the PC version of Grand Theft ect.

If there was a mouse/keyboard type controller for consoles there would be no reason for me to stick with the PC.

TBH that would make me very happy. Why spend hundreds and hundreds of pounds on building and then continually upgrading a PC when you can spend £300 on a console that then remains the same until the next generation appears a few years later.

I'm all for it. Let's relegate the PC back into the office.

Just give me a controller I can use.

[Maggy]

PC gaming is NOT numbered.

MMORPG DO NOT WORK ON A ******* CONTROLLER.


how ever i will expect to see a decline in "genere" avalible on PC.
unless theres a sure way to fight the little *******s that download illegal copies of games, then theres no point the developer developing for a system you know 80% of the users will just rip you off.

[Platinum]

Something needs to be done about the people that pikey everything just because they can, people these days just dont realise how much damage there piracy is doing.

[/end RIAA mode]

[Platinum]

Why spend hundreds and hundreds of pounds on building and then continually upgrading a PC when you can spend £300 on a console that then remains the same until the next generation appears a few years later.

Been having a think about the costs involved and im not so sure that PC gaming is that much more expensive than console gaming.

Most households (Excluding enthusiasts like ourselfs, I am only counting casual gamers) these days have a PC of some sort that they would probably upgrade / replace every 3 - 4 years, so in terms of PC gaming its only really the graphics card you would be looking at, now mid range cards gernarly cost around £80 - £100 and you would be looking at upgrading this every 2 possably 3 years to keep up with the latest games, now consoles gernarly see a refresh every 67 years or so? (Correct me if im wrong here), so in the lifespan of a console you looking at around £300 worth of graphics cards upgrades per machine, add in around another £100 for additional memory ect and your looking at around £400 spent in the period you would have a console.

Now the consoles generaly cost around £300 - £400 when released, and about £100 less as the years go by.
Also another thing to look at is the cost of the games, I generaly see that PC games are about £5 - £10 cheaper than console games, I think this is because the console games cost a little more to make up for the losses made on the consoles themselfs.

So really looking at it from a standard gamers view PC gaming isnt really that expensive.
Its only people like us that spend more on our PC's than on our consoles and the enthusiast only makes up a small percentage of the PC gaming industry.

Which brings me back to my previos post, Why dont PC games sell as well? becuse there are so many bloody pikeys out there, Roll on the 3 strikes rule with ISP's I say and see how many PC games get sold then when the theiving little ****s cant get there warez on P2P :p.

[Colio]

Been having a think about the costs involved and im not so sure that PC gaming is that much more expensive than console gaming.



On the face of it, I would agree with your figures Plat, but you've missed a few crucial points with regards to the pc figures.

1) Technology, as we know is ever evolving, not least in the PC medium. To use your upgrade example, you would have to ensure that the hardware you are upgrading to is compatible with the current motherboard etc in your old system.

So first look at aspects like graphics cards, they went from PCI, to AGP, to AGP Xn to PCI-E if Im correct. So if you were to upgrade your computer in 3/4 years time, could you say 100% that all you'll need to change is your gfx card?

2) Bottlenecks. Along with technology, you have the problem of the older hardware. Why upgrade to an AGP x16 graphics card if you only have an AGP x1 slot in your mobo? (forgive my lack of up to date knowledge, been out the pc build scene for a while lol).

3) Games - This actually isnt that big of a problem, because its quite infrequent that you get a title come along thats all computer-busting performance requirements. But it still happens. So along with the gfx upgrade, you have to look at cpu upgrade etc, which all adds up.


Consoles dont change in the course of the 6/7 year lifetime. Only the developers change and get smarter.

I dont think you can upgrade a 3/4 year pc to something that could run latest games for £100/200. I would put that at least £100/200 every two years.

I think your estimates sway far too much in the pc favour, and I just dont think they are realistic.

The game price is a valid point, especially if you buy all brand new titles as they come out. Console titles on average (if you take the latest gen machines) are about £10-£15 more than pc games on retail.

But if your not one of the must buy it now brigade, you can wait a few months and pick up some good deals.

Thats the thing about consoles, it doesnt matter when the game is released to when I play it, I know I only have to pay for the game when the price is right for me and my machine will run it perfectly.

If as a pc gamer you wish to play the latest title a few months down the line, you will still need to upgrade your pc.

[Colio]

replying to the topic in general, I dont think it will continue to be a pc/console war.

I think we are fast approaching a time when the two systems will be compatible when it comes to games, (from a MP point of view) it will simply be a question of choice from the consumer.

But given the lack of overheads for the console I think that console players will be the majority.

[Vulpine]

A PC does some things better, consoles do some things better.

A console is a PC is most ways, it has an OS, it plays games, it has all the same hardware as a PC (gfx, sound cards etc.) it is just easier for non-techies to get setup and playing.

I suspect there will be an imalgamation of PC & Console technology (probably with Microsoft leading the way using their market power and huge budget!). Something along the lines of XBOX for PC, a software package you can install on your PC, media centre or laptop which emulates and allows you to play console games online from any PC. Especially now, most people have home networks with pc's and consoles.

The future is bright....

[Boff]

latest news unreal4 for consoles only.....

cpu catching up to GPU's

Frickin Gabe Newells dream of a homogenous environment may be comming true.....
http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2008/03/13/unreal_engine_4_to_exclusively_target_consoles/1

[olobley]

With the advent of broadband and network enabled consoles, a decline in the PC industry was inevitable, as up until the original xbrick, this was the real clincher for PC gaming...that you could play with others.

The other point of note is that you can't really compare steam to Xbox Live, as people *pay* to be on Xbox live (it's like £15 every three months or something I think), wheras steam (iirc) is free to join and there are no recurring fees. I can't think of any networks similar to XBL on the PC where one has to pay to stay playing (other than WoW and other mmorpgs).

The other thing is that I would imagine development for the PC is much the same as for the consoles, as my understanding is this is exactly why Microsoft implmented Direct X.
To give all software developers a standard set of commands, and all hardware developers a reference model to build to.

I would expect to see most new console titles eventually ported to the PC, however due to sheer volume considerations, I think console gaming is where it's going to be 'at' for the foreseeable future.

[olobley]

latest news unreal4 for consoles only.....

cpu catching up to GPU's

Frickin Gabe Newells dream of a homogenous environment may be comming true.....
http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2008/03/13/unreal_engine_4_to_exclusively_target_consoles/1

hahaha...because epic wouldn't want to upset their loyal 'bread and butter' PC fans now would the
</fanboirant>

[Maggy]

i would say lets all boycott epic.

but UT sucks anyway.

[Platinum]

What are we gonna do for lans if PC gaming dies off?, Cant see any of the hardcore FPS gamers moving to console only.

[Platinum]

A console is a PC is most ways, it has an OS, it plays games, it has all the same hardware as a PC (gfx, sound cards etc.) it is just easier for non-techies to get setup and playing.

Indeed, we may end up with a hybrid of both, a console that can run a OS simalar to windows with a good browser msn ect, that has media center capabilitys.
Might end up that we all just have a console and a laptop for example.

[Platinum]

Im also surprised ATI / Nvidia arnt doing more to get people gaming on the PC, if PC gaming dies then thats a nice chunk of there profits gone.

[Boff]

basically it's all about dev costs vs sales

splitting the dev cost between PS3 and xbox360 is costly.
since ps3 architecture is radically different to that of the pc-console.

so this is where it's at.

If you are developing for the xbox360 you are basically developing for a PC, where everything works.

No fiddling round with odd spare bits of motherboards, graphics cards, hard disks display drivers, all that crap.....

Xbox360 is single PC which you code for and you need no odd work arounds for odd hardware configurations.

A PC is more troublesome. Take a look at Valves source engine. The famous stutter bugs.
Valve had brought in two rigs of the same make model/components, and the stutter bug was on one, but not the other.

When developing a game engine you don't want that kind of crap to plague your dev cycle, cutting PC's out of the loop, and concertrating on the PC set in stone xbox4000 (or whatever it will be), will make it easier for them.
the case against PC's has been developing for months.

I think vista as a whole thing to do with it. Microsoft f'cked up. Not that "they" care as they saw this, hence the friking xbox....they still OS, and Games machines whether it's a xbox or a stationary rig.
There strategy of sorting vista & dx10 was dumped and instead they fixed the "ring of death" problem of the xbox and smoother any bad PR problems there.

Then both them and intel are shipping pc's with Vista ready stickers, on rigs that can't cope, ruining game performance.

Add the "hype" of dx10, and Carmac to Newell just said gripes guys we haven't even got half way through dx9's things.

The dx10 cards came out for the Dx10 games, like, err......lost planet, a couple of RTS strategy games, had dx10, but the overall performance...this legendary LEAP of 30% of integrated cpu->pc pipeline bollox has not surface.
Then Microsoft is all.....hell a gpu can only pull so many revs, for x-amount of polygons and shaders, dx10 isn't going to change that or improve that.
So everyone who bought a DX10 card at the start of 2007 did so as they waited for crysis.
Which when it came, was at the end of 2007, and lets face it, you're best off waiting until 2009 xmass to buy a rig to play that game.
The engine DOES surpass ANYTHING on the console market.


http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2008/01/30/pc_game_sales_constitute_14_percent_of_total_sales/1
http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2008/02/01/mark_rein_consoles_killing_the_pc_market/1


A lot of the journalists say these stats have been "doctored".
nintendo DS has "casual" games counted into it's stats
PC stats have "discluded" casual game sales....as they don't count. like wtf???

and "online" revenue have not been counted. i.e. how much business is done via steam and other "pc" online outlines. If you think HL1 ships 8 million units HL2 ships 4 million units (retail). yet 15 million sit on steam, agreably they hopped from 13-15 million because of steam community and tf2, but still the stats of hl2 sales 4m units vs 8million of hl1 don't add up.


However in OTHER online reselling the xboxlive stats, ARE included.......
http://www.bit-tech.net/columns/2008/02/02/the_sky_is_falling/1


even Carmac is worried
http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2008/03/14/john_carmack_talks_ray-tracing_pc_gaming/1




our last best hope

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2008/02/20/pc_gaming_alliance_formed_at_gdc/1